Why Most Published Research Findings are False
Writing in PLoS Medicine, John Ioannidis says:
There is increasing concern that in modern research, false findings may be the majority or even the vast majority of published research claims. However, this should not be surprising. It can be proven that most claimed research findings are false.
Ioannidis presents a Bayesian analysis of the problem which most people will find utterly confusing. Here's the idea in a diagram.
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