O mito da mobilidade social americana

Harder for Americans to Rise From Lower Rungs
By JASON DePARLEWASHINGTON — Benjamin Franklin did it. Henry Ford did it. And American life is built on the faith that others can do it, too: rise from humble origins to economic heights. “Movin’ on up,” George Jefferson-style, is not only a sitcom song but a civil religion.But many researchers have reached a conclusion that turns conventional wisdom on its head: Americans enjoy less economic mobility than their peers in Canada and much of Western Europe.
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Como estudar

"When 160,000 undergraduates in the University of California system were asked to name the obstacles that impeded their academic success, the students listed things like work, stress, and depression. But the number one reason, which was given by 33% of the students, was that they simply didn’t know how to study..."

Leia aqui o que fazer e o que não fazer para estudar mais em menos tempo.

De Marx a Mises

Comentários:
In 1920, Ludwig von Mises proclaimed that all attempts to establish socialism would come to grief, for reasons of informational efficiency. At first, socialists and economists took Mises's argument seriously, but by the end of the Second World War, a consensus prevailed that Mises had been discredited. More recently, that consensus has been rapidly reversed: it is now widely agreed that 'Mises was right'. Yet the momentous implications of the Mises argument - for economics, politics, culture, and philosophy - remain largely unexplored. From Marx to Mises is a clear, penetrating exposition of the economic calculation debate, and a scrutiny of some of the broader issues it raises. --
 This book explores the relationship between economics and politics by focusing on the idea of "social planning" of the economy. The idea has been tremendously important, both in socialist and in modern liberal countries--but is it right? Steele shows the reasons for and against the idea, and while doing so provides an excellent account of the history of economic theories. He brings clarity, intelligence, and even wit to a subject that other writers struggle to make as opaque as possible. A fascinating book, the best introduction to modern economic thought that I've ever seen.--
Only a man like Steele, who was once a well-versed Marxist, and then came to appreciate the passionate and compelling anti-socialism of "the Marx of capitalism," the great Ludwig von Mises, could have produced such an insightful book.
The trouble with most Marxists and Misesians is that they usually misconstrue the other side. Steele doesn't. He's one of the few writers who really understands where both sides are coming from. 
The result is a fascinating and pentrating analysis of the single most important debate of the last 200 years----one which actually came close to destroying Western civilization as we know it. 
Steele cuts through layers of irrelevancies to arrive at the crux of the controversy, and no one who reads this book will go away without a much deeper understanding of politics, economics, and intellectual history. (Example: A powerful analysis of the very idea of "property," whether public or private.) There is no thinking person that the insights of this book will not affect.
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A melhor medicina é a mais barata

"Always laugh when you can. It is cheaper than medicine." - Lord Byron

O calandário dos mayas - fim do mundo 2012

Los calendarios mayas y el significado de 2012
Resulta muy ilustrativa la conferencia del antropólogo Bruce Love impartida en la Universidad Francisco Marroquín (UFM) de Guatemala: El calendario maya y el verdadero significado del año 2012 para poner un poco de mesura en las especulaciones acerca del “fin del mundo”.
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O culto de "amor"

Author Article by Simon May: Rethinking our Fascination with Love
"For many years, in fact since my childhood, I have been amazed by the swashbuckling claims that people routinely make on behalf of love – and on behalf of their own capacity to love. It seems that, if only we work at it, love can be a cocoon of perfection: it can make us feel totally secure, wanted, and respected in all our individuality; it can redeem the brevity and imperfections of life; it can give meaning and purpose where nothing else can; it can protect us from every abyss. The Royal wedding in Britain is likely to be a showcase of such sentiments – and of their almost unquestioned status....
In my book – Love: A History – I attempt to trace how love came to be the new god. And not any old god – say, one of those self-seeking, lustful, capricious and frankly evil Greek gods – but rather the spitting image of the Christian God.  In other words, love – genuine love – has come to be seen as all-good, unconditioned, unchanging, selfless in showing concern for the wellbeing of loved ones, and our chief bulwark against suffering and loss.  Today love has arguably become the only truly universal religion in the West – including in the United States..."
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Nassim Taleb sobre probabilidade

Why We Don’t Know What We Talk About When We Talk About Probability
Nassim N. Taleb
 Distinguished Lecture Series,
 Humbold University, Berlin, Department of Applied Statistics,
January 28, 2012
January 2012 - DRAFT- cannot be cited yet without permission
It explains the problems in discussing probability and expected payoffs in the presence of convexity
effects, and shows how 1) the dynamics of exposure are divorced from those of probability, and 2) how
probability needs to be used as a kernel not an end result. Shows the difference between naive
probability in the philosophical and other discussions and kernel probability. Explains the difference
between “knowing” and “doing”, the “Aristotelian” v/s the “Thalesian”. Following the logic leads us to
the central error made in Fukushima.
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A psicologia, sociologia e tecnologica da produtividade

Improving Workplace Performance … to make your best better.  I study productivity, so you don’t have to. You are busy. You’ve got work to do. There is someone who is about to interrupt you…as you’re reading this! You need to know what works…now. 
When we work together, I will share what I know about “the psychology, sociology and technology” of productivity. You will get more done, faster when you understand:
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Destruição criativa - o caso de Kodak

Eastman Kodak Co. is preparing for a Chapter 11 bankruptcy-protection filing in the coming weeks should efforts to sell a trove of digital patents fall through, people familiar with the matter said.
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Faz somente alguns anos quando Kodak foi chamado um "monopólio".

Dinheiro e Magia

"Dinheiro e Magia"
Autor: Hans Christoph Binswanger
Editora: Zahar
Páginas: 214
Quanto: R$ 35,00 (preço promocional*)
Onde comprar: pelo telefone 0800-140090 ou pelo site da Livraria da Folha

Depois de conhecer a emissão de papel-moeda, sistema concebido por John Law (1671-1729), a França desempregou os alquimistas da corte. A história é contada por Gustavo Franco, ex-presidente do Banco Central, no prefácio do livro "Dinheiro e Magia", escrito pelo economista Hans Christoph Binswanger. No volume, Binswanger levanta a hipótese de que a economia atual é uma forma moderna de alquimia. O autor compara o desejo dos alquimistas em transformar algum material sem valor em ouro aos anseios do mercado financeiro. Publicado no Brasil pela editora Zahar, o título se inspira em "Fausto", obra-prima de Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832). Leia um trecho do livro.
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John F. Kennedy - Martin Luther King - Ron Paul

Video clip da campanha eleitoral de Ron Paul
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=SzaLP9dTXhE

Progresso tecnológico

Vivemos no melhor dos tempos

Steven Pinker: "... O fato é que,desde 1945, o número de mortos em guerras ou de vítimas de assassinatos e estupros é menor dos últimos 5000 anos, quando se leva em conta a relação com o total da população..."
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Pesquisa errada

Trials and Errors: Why Science Is Failing Us
By Jonah Lehrer
 "... The story of torcetrapib is a tale of mistaken causation. Pfizer was operating on the assumption that raising levels of HDL cholesterol and lowering LDL would lead to a predictable outcome: Improved cardiovascular health. Less arterial plaque. Cleaner pipes. But that didn’t happen..."
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Medicina errada - curas falsas

Medicina baseia suas condutas em pesquisas com método falho

O vaivém das pesquisas médicas irrita muita gente. Um dia, é proibido comer ovo. No outro, ovo faz bem. Mas os problemas inerentes ao uso dos estudos estatísticos na medicina vão muito além disso.  Remédios um dia vistos como uma evolução são tirados do mercado depois que os pacientes começam a sofrer efeitos colaterais graves. Foi o caso do anti-inflamatório rofecoxibe, o Vioxx, vetado após causar mortes. Como é que as pesquisas realizadas para aprovar a venda da droga não captaram esse efeito?  É esse tipo de pergunta que o médico reumatologista Marcelo Derbli Schafranski, 36, tenta responder no livro "Medicina - Fragilidades de um Modelo Ainda Imperfeito" (Ed. Schoba, R$ 50).
 Ele falou à Folha, por telefone, de Ponta Grossa (PR).
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A relação entre a ordem monetária e a ordem social

Jörg Guido Hülsmann explica: "The fundamental issue in banking and monetary policy is whether government can improve the monetary institutions of the unhampered market. All government intervention in this field boils down to schemes that increase the quantity of money beyond what it otherwise would be. The libertarian case for the abolishment of government intervention in money and banking rests on the insight that the latter serves only redistributive purposes."
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Ordem econômica

Alemanha entre Ludwig Erhard e Gustav von Schmoller - A escolha entre capitalismo, socialismo e a sua mistura - há lições para o Brasil?



Blanchette, Jude. 2004. “The Trouble With the EU,” June 16;

Erhard, Ludwig.1957[1975]. Prosperity Through Competition, Greenwood Press;

Formaini, Robert L. 2005. “Germany: Doomed by Schmollerism,” November 4;

Higgs, Robert. 1996. “Reform Is Not Possible”;

Hodgson, Fergus. 2012. “Ron Paul walks the talk: Rebuttal to the Liberty Bullhorn";

Tucker, Jeffrey. 2010. “Erhard Persuades the Business Class,” June 3;

Vogelgesang, Frank. 2002. “Ludwig Erhard, We Need You,” April 24.

A evolução da internet

Mapa interativo

Ronald Coase celebra o seu 101. aniversário

Nobel Laureate Economist Ronald Coase Turns 101

By David Theroux | On December 29th, the world-renowned economist Ronald H. Coase celebrated in Chicago his 101st birthday. Professor Coase received the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 1991, and he is the Clifton R. Musser Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Chicago Law School and the former, highly influential editor of the prestigious Journal of Law and Economics. Assar Lindbeck (chairman of the prize committee) at the time of Professor Coase’s Nobel stated that, “Coase explains the structure of a market economy. He tries to explain why we have firms, how companies evolve and the reason why they do or don’t expand. . . . The largest practical use for his studies is that people better can understand how the world works and why.”  And indeed this is the case, as is found in two of his many studies: “The Nature of the Firm” (1937), in which he introduced the term “transaction costs,” and illustrated their crucial importance; and “The Problem of Social Costs” (or “Coase Theorem,” 1960), by far the most cited article in all of the social science, in which he discussed the nature and importance of property rights. Both of these and other superb articles by him are included in his very important book, The Firm, the Market and the Law: Essays on Economics and Economists...
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A controvérsia moderna sobre ciência, tecnologia e mais

‘I Married a Computer’: An Exchange
Ray Kurzweil, reply by John R. Searle
To the Editors:

John Searle starts with a distorted caricature of my book and then attacks the caricature [“I Married a Computer,” NYR, April 8]. Had I written the book he describes, I would attack it also. It is impossible here to unravel the thicket of Searle’s misunderstandings, massive misrepresentations, out-of-context quotes, and philosophical sleights of hand, so I direct the reader to www.kurzweiltech.com/Searle. The following offers a few salient observations.
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Psicopatologia dos mercados financeiros

Cohan: Did Psychopaths Take Over Wall Street?

By William D. CohanIt took a relatively obscure former British academic to propagate a theory of the financial crisis that would confirm what many people suspected all along: The “corporate psychopaths” at the helm of our financial institutions are to blame.
Clive R. Boddy, most recently a professor at the Nottingham Business School at Nottingham Trent University, says psychopaths are the 1 percent of “people who, perhaps due to physical factors to do with abnormal brain connectivity and chemistry” lack a “conscience, have few emotions and display an inability to have any feelings, sympathy or empathy for other people.”
As a result, Boddy argues in a recent issue of the Journal of Business Ethics, such people are “extraordinarily cold, much more calculating and ruthless towards others than most people are and therefore a menace to the companies they work for and to society.”
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Aprenda como ser ditador - aprenda porque comportamento mal é bom na política

Quick study: Alastair Smith on political tyranny
How to be a dictator
ALASTAIR SMITH is professor of politics at New York University. The recipient of three grants from the National Science Foundation and author of three books, he was chosen as the 2005 Karl Deutsch Award winner, given biennially to the best international-relations scholar under the age of 40.
He is co-author of “The Dictator’s Handbook: How Bad Behaviour is Almost Always Good Politics” (2011).
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A fórmula que matou o mercado financeiro - receita para o desastre

Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street - Felix Salmon

For five years, Li's formula, known as a Gaussian copula function, looked like an unambiguously positive breakthrough, a piece of financial technology that allowed hugely complex risks to be modeled with more ease and accuracy than ever before. With his brilliant spark of mathematical legerdemain, Li made it possible for traders to sell vast quantities of new securities, expanding financial markets to unimaginable levels.
Then the model fell apart. Cracks started appearing early on, when financial markets began behaving in ways that users of Li's formula hadn't expected. The cracks became full-fledged canyons in 2008—when ruptures in the financial system's foundation swallowed up trillions of dollars and put the survival of the global banking system in serious peril...
 In the world of finance, too many quants see only the numbers before them and forget about the concrete reality the figures are supposed to represent. They think they can model just a few years' worth of data and come up with probabilities for things that may happen only once every 10,000 years. Then people invest on the basis of those probabilities, without stopping to wonder whether the numbers make any sense at all.
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Here's what killed your 401(k) David X. Li's Gaussian copula function as first published in 2000. Investors exploited it as a quick—and fatally flawed—way to assess risk. A shorter version appears on this month's cover of Wired.

Probability Specifically, this is a joint default probability—the likelihood that any two members of the pool (A and B) will both default. It's what investors are looking for, and the rest of the formula provides the answer.	Survival times The amount of time between now and when A and B can be expected to default. Li took the idea from a concept in actuarial science that charts what happens to someone's life expectancy when their spouse dies.	Equality A dangerously precise concept, since it leaves no room for error. Clean equations help both quants and their managers forget that the real world contains a surprising amount of uncertainty, fuzziness, and precariousness.
Copula This couples (hence the Latinate term copula) the individual probabilities associated with A and B to come up with a single number. Errors here massively increase the risk of the whole equation blowing up.	Distribution functions The probabilities of how long A and B are likely to survive. Since these are not certainties, they can be dangerous: Small miscalculations may leave you facing much more risk than the formula indicates.	Gamma The all-powerful correlation parameter, which reduces correlation to a single constant—something that should be highly improbable, if not impossible. This is the magic number that made Li's copula function irresistible.

A tragédia de desemprego dos jovens - EUA

Desemprego dos jovens nos Estados Unidos

Jeffrey Tucker: "... If you read the biographies of history’s great creators, they all tell of wonderful and crazy experiences of work in early youth, by which I mean 11 or 12 years old. By the time these people were 20, their lives were pretty well set. As the biographies all report, work instills an ethic of attentiveness, getting along with others, discipline to stick to a task and pride in a job well done.
And work is a fantastic teacher, better than the classroom. You learn about inputs and outputs, accounting and why it matters, customers and business relations, the competitive marketplace, the strictures and framework of profitability. It requires the acquisition and applications of new skills. It teaches kids to be other-regarding and to push themselves to the limits, instead of selfish and indulgent toward sloths. These are lessons you have to acquire early in life, and they stick with you forever.
The classroom does none of this. Neither does sitting on the sofa playing Wii. I’m a champion of video gaming for kids, but let’s get real: It has a fraction of the sociological and economic value of a real job. It is escapism, whereas working for a business is the real thing..."
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Universidades em transformação

THE ECONOMIST University challenge

American professors of literature crank out 70,000 scholarly publications a year, compared with 13,757 in 1959. Most of these simply moulder: Mark Bauerlein of Emory University points out that, of the 16 research papers produced in 2004 by the University of Vermont’s literature department, a fairly representative institution, 11 have since received between zero and two citations. The time wasted writing articles that will never be read cannot be spent teaching. In “Academically Adrift” Richard Arum and Josipa Roksa argue that over a third of America’s students show no improvement in critical thinking or analytical reasoning after four years in college.
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Educação livre para todos on-line

M.I.T. Game-Changer: Free Online Education For All

+ Comment now

M.I.T.'s Simmons Hall

For Wall Street Occupiers or other decriers of the “social injustice” of college tuition, here’s a curveball bound to scramble your worldview: a totally free college education regardless of your academic performance or background. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (M.I.T.) will announce on Monday that they intend to launch an online learning initiative called M.I.T.x,which will offer the online teaching of M.I.T. courses free of charge to anyone in the world.
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O fim do "understatement"

Things are getting a tad sticky: how the Great British Understatement is dying a slow death

• by: Ben Macintyre
• From:The Australian

SLOGGING through the jungles of Africa in 1873, David Livingstone recorded an extraordinary example of a species that has since become almost extinct: the Great British Understatement.

The intrepid explorer was suffering from pneumonia, malaria, foot ulcers and piles so savage he could barely walk. The roasting heat was punctuated by sudden torrential downpours. Many of his porters had run away and he had been forced to pull out most of his rotting teeth. He had been attacked by leeches, slavers and hostile African tribesmen. Lurking in his gut was a blood clot the size of a cricket ball that would shortly kill him.
In his tent, by the light of a candle, Livingstone picked up his pen and, using berry juice because he had run out of ink, he wrote these magnificent words: "It is not all pleasure, this exploration."
... The knack of understatement has all but vanished from public discourse. Over the past year, politicians, journalists and commentators have vied to portray various crises, both natural and manmade -- earthquake, riots, economic meltdown -- in the most extreme colours.
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Por que todo está tão errado? Porque ainda temos as regras do passado

Don't Solve Problems
Kelly's assertion that any job with measurable productivity should probably be eliminated seems a tad harsh today. But his broader point was that innovation would spring from the "inefficient tinkerings" of people with time to kill, rather than from industrial-age efficiency metrics — a principle that has clearly outlasted the boom.
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Vaja também:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/5.09/newrules.html

Conferência Internacional - A Escola Austríaca no século XXI

Fourth Interational Conference
“The Austrian School of Economics in the 21st Century”

Venue:
 Catholic University Campus – Av. Pellegrini 3314, Rosario, Argentina

Date: August 6th, 7th and 8th 2012

Contact: info@escuelaaustriaca.org // escuelaaustriaca@gmail.com
 (Please e-mail both addresses to avoid reception problems)
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Como aprender linguas estrangeiras - "flashcards"

Babel No More: The Search for the World’s Most Extraordinary Language Learners. By Michael Erard. Free Press; 306 pages; $25.99. Buy from Amazon.com

CARDINAL MEZZOFANTI of Bologna was a secular saint. Though he never performed the kind of miracle needed to be officially canonised, his power was close to unearthly. Mezzofanti was said to speak 72 languages. Or 50. Or to have fully mastered 30. No one was certain of the true figure, but it was a lot. Visitors flocked from all corners of Europe to test him and came away stunned. He could switch between languages with ease. Two condemned prisoners were due to be executed, but no one knew their language to hear their confession. Mezzofanti learned it in a night, heard their sins the next morning and saved them from hell.
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