Why We Don’t Know What We Talk About When We Talk About Probability
Nassim N. Taleb
Distinguished Lecture Series,
Humbold University, Berlin, Department of Applied Statistics,
January 28, 2012
January 2012 - DRAFT- cannot be cited yet without permission
It explains the problems in discussing probability and expected payoffs in the presence of convexity
effects, and shows how 1) the dynamics of exposure are divorced from those of probability, and 2) how
probability needs to be used as a kernel not an end result. Shows the difference between naive
probability in the philosophical and other discussions and kernel probability. Explains the difference
between “knowing” and “doing”, the “Aristotelian” v/s the “Thalesian”. Following the logic leads us to
the central error made in Fukushima.
Mais
Nenhum comentário:
Postar um comentário