domingo, 25 de dezembro de 2016

Medicos não entendem risco

Doctors don’t know Bayes’ Theorem

The article I read was about probability in medicine. It turns out, most doctors don’t know actually know probability. The article mainly concerns Gerd Gigerenzer, the director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy in Berlin, who wrote a book called Risk Savvy which “takes aim at health professionals for not giving patients the information they need to make choices about healthcare.” The first statistical problem presented to doctors was the following:
A 50-year-old woman, no symptoms, participates in routine mammography screening. She tests positive, is alarmed, and wants to know from you whether she has breast cancer for certain or what the chances are. Apart from the screening results, you know nothing else about this woman. How many women who test positive actually have breast cancer? What is the best answer?

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