Svetozar Pejovich
The Dictator’s Handbook: Why Bad Behavior Is Almost Always Good Politics
October 2012 • Volume: 62 • Issue: 8 • Print This Post • 1 comment
This book has a terrific title. Every dictator should have a copy. In it Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith explain the brainchild they call the “selectorate” theory.
The focus of that theory is the leadership of governments, organizations, business establishments, and other associations. Leaders’ power and longevity depend on the balance of power among three key groups in their respective communities: 1) the nominal selectorate, or “interchangeables”; 2) the real selectorate, or “influentials”; and 3) the winning coalition, or “essentials.” The nominal selectorate consists of the pool of all potential supporters. The real selectorate is the group actually choosing the leader. And the winning coalition is the subset of the real selectorate on whose support the survival of all leaders depends.
The crucial implication of the authors’ analysis is that our belief that there is a great difference between dictators and democratic “representatives” is just a convenient fiction. In their Machiavellian view, all kinds of rulers aim at their own survival, not “the public good.”
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