"... the
Emperors actually suppressed technology. Petronius described how: ‘a
flexible glass was invented, but the workshop of the inventor was
completely destroyed by the Emperor Tiberius for fear that copper,
silver and gold would lose value’. Suetonius described how: ‘An engineer
devised a new machine which could haul large pillars at little expense.
However the Emperor Vespasian rejected the invention and asked “who
will take care of my poor?”.’ So uncommercial had the Romans become,
their rulers rejected increases in productivity. In such a world,
advances in science were never going to be translated into technology.
Thus we can see that the government funding of ancient science was, in
both economic and technological terms, a complete waste of money because
the economy lacked the mechanism to exploit it...
The growth of the Empire had always been based on conquest, and the
Empire’s economy had been fuelled by the exploitation of new colonies.
When the Empire ran out of putative victims, its economy ceased to make
sense, particularly as the mere maintenance of the Empire, with its
garrisons and its bureaucrats, was so expensive. From the beginning of
the second century AD, the State had to raise higher and higher taxes to
maintain itself and its armies. It was under the Emperors Hadrian and
Trajan, when the Empire was at its largest, that residual freedoms
started to get knocked away to ensure that revenue was collected.
Special commissioners, curatores, were appointed to run the cities. An army of secret police were recruited from the frumentarii.
To pay for the extra bureaucrats, yet more taxes were raised, and the
state increasingly took over the running of the economy – almost on
ancient Egyptian lines. In AD 301, the Emperor Diocletian imposed fixed
wages and prices, by decree, with infractions punishable by death. He
declared that ‘uncontrolled economic activity is a religion of the
godless’. Lanctantius wrote that the edict was a complete failure, that
‘there was a great bloodshed arising from its small and unimportant
details’ and that more people were engaged in raising and spending taxes
than in paying them. The origins of
medieval feudalism emerged from the Roman Empire as it decayed. To
ensure that the peasants continued to work under an economy which had
lost its free-market incentives, Constantine promulgated a law in AD 332
which bound all coloni to the state as serfs. Their children were glebe adscripti, tied to the soil. To reinforce state control on all aspects of the economy, the city trade guilds or collegia
imposed compulsory, hereditary trades on all. An edict Of AD 390
forbade children of the workers in the mint to marry outside their caste
or trade. The towns shrank, and the population condensed on the
patriarchal, self-sufficient, isolated estates that adumbrate the
medieval European villages. Indeed, the word ‘village’ derives from the
Latin villa, indicating that the feudal villages originated as
the private estates of Roman magnates. And the Roman Catholic Church,
once adopted by Constantine as the official religion, started to burn
heretics. Religious and intellectual freedom, the great gifts of the
Graeco-Roman period, were extinguished. No new technology emerged."
Terence Kealey, The Economics of Scientific Research
sábado, 30 de novembro de 2013
Pesquisa pública e privada
Francis
Bacon (1561-1626)
Criar
conhecimentos científicos é muito difícil e caro. Copiar os conhecimentos e
muito fácil e barato. Assim a produção de ciência é sub o ótimo e requer
subsidio do estado.
Bacon
não foi cientista, foi advogado
Adam
Smith (1723-1790)
Observou
que as inovações na empresas antecedem as investigações universitárias
OCDE
(2003) “The sources of growth in OECD countries” consta que tem uma forte
correlação entre P&D privada (“business-performed R&D”) e crescimento
econômico, enquanto subsídios públicos para pesquisa tem nenhum positivo
efeito, pior, pesquisa subsidia pelo governo (“publicly-performed R&D”) produz
“crowding-out” da pesquisa privada.
Governo e ciência
Por que o governo não deve investir na ciência
Palestra realizada por Terence Kealey na quinta conferência anual Property and Freedom Society. Evento realizado em 3-7 de Junho, no Hotel Karia Princess em Bodrum, Turquia.
Transcrição e tradução de Robson da Silva.
Revisão e sincronização de Juliano Torres.
Original: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzvr2C...
Palestra realizada por Terence Kealey na quinta conferência anual Property and Freedom Society. Evento realizado em 3-7 de Junho, no Hotel Karia Princess em Bodrum, Turquia.
Transcrição e tradução de Robson da Silva.
Revisão e sincronização de Juliano Torres.
Original: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzvr2C...
sexta-feira, 29 de novembro de 2013
Historia escondida
Sick from Freedom
African-American Illness and Suffering during the Civil War and Reconstruction
Jim Downs
Description
Bondspeople who fled from slavery during and after the Civil War did not expect that their flight toward freedom would lead to sickness, disease, suffering, and death. But the war produced the largest biological crisis of the nineteenth century, and as historian Jim Downs reveals in this groundbreaking volume, it had deadly consequences for hundreds of thousands of freed people.
In Sick from Freedom, Downs recovers the untold story of one of the bitterest ironies in American history--that the emancipation of the slaves, seen as one of the great turning points in U.S. history, had devastating consequences for innumerable freedpeople. Drawing on massive new research into the records of the Medical Division of the Freedmen's Bureau-a nascent national health system that cared for more than one million freed slaves-he shows how the collapse of the plantation economy released a plague of lethal diseases. With emancipation, African Americans seized the chance to move, migrating as never before. But in their journey to freedom, they also encountered yellow fever, smallpox, cholera, dysentery, malnutrition, and exposure. To address this crisis, the Medical Division hired more than 120 physicians, establishing some forty underfinanced and understaffed hospitals scattered throughout the South, largely in response to medical emergencies. Downs shows that the goal of the Medical Division was to promote a healthy workforce, an aim which often excluded a wide range of freedpeople, including women, the elderly, the physically disabled, and children. Downs concludes by tracing how the Reconstruction policy was then implemented in the American West, where it was disastrously applied to Native Americans.
The widespread medical calamity sparked by emancipation is an overlooked episode of the Civil War and its aftermath, poignantly revealed in Sick from Freedom.
In Sick from Freedom, Downs recovers the untold story of one of the bitterest ironies in American history--that the emancipation of the slaves, seen as one of the great turning points in U.S. history, had devastating consequences for innumerable freedpeople. Drawing on massive new research into the records of the Medical Division of the Freedmen's Bureau-a nascent national health system that cared for more than one million freed slaves-he shows how the collapse of the plantation economy released a plague of lethal diseases. With emancipation, African Americans seized the chance to move, migrating as never before. But in their journey to freedom, they also encountered yellow fever, smallpox, cholera, dysentery, malnutrition, and exposure. To address this crisis, the Medical Division hired more than 120 physicians, establishing some forty underfinanced and understaffed hospitals scattered throughout the South, largely in response to medical emergencies. Downs shows that the goal of the Medical Division was to promote a healthy workforce, an aim which often excluded a wide range of freedpeople, including women, the elderly, the physically disabled, and children. Downs concludes by tracing how the Reconstruction policy was then implemented in the American West, where it was disastrously applied to Native Americans.
The widespread medical calamity sparked by emancipation is an overlooked episode of the Civil War and its aftermath, poignantly revealed in Sick from Freedom.
Exceso de ideologia na formação
Especialistas criticam excesso de ideologia na formação de professores
Especialistas convidados para debater as metodologias de alfabetização na Educação Infantil avaliaram que a falta de metodologia, associada ao excesso de ideologias na formação dos profissionais, prejudicam a qualidade do ensino.
Durante audiência pública realizada nesta quinta-feira (28) pela Comissão de Educação, especialistas reclamaram que, para não ferir a liberdade criativa do professor, o Brasil praticamente não possui diretrizes de alfabetização.
O professor da Faculdade de Educação da Universidade de Brasília (UnB) Bráulio Porto também criticou o excesso de ideologias na formação dos professores e considerou a inserção de temas transversais nas disciplinas tradicionais brasileiras como prejudiciais. “O excesso de doutrinação ideológica reduz o espaço dedicado à alfabetização e aos outros conhecimentos básicos como português, matemática e ciências. Enquanto as faculdades de educação de Cingapura oferecem 18 disciplinas de matemática, ciências e língua materna; no Brasil, as faculdades costumam oferecer apenas uma ou duas disciplinas de matemática, ciências e língua”, observou.
Mais
Durante audiência pública realizada nesta quinta-feira (28) pela Comissão de Educação, especialistas reclamaram que, para não ferir a liberdade criativa do professor, o Brasil praticamente não possui diretrizes de alfabetização.
O professor da Faculdade de Educação da Universidade de Brasília (UnB) Bráulio Porto também criticou o excesso de ideologias na formação dos professores e considerou a inserção de temas transversais nas disciplinas tradicionais brasileiras como prejudiciais. “O excesso de doutrinação ideológica reduz o espaço dedicado à alfabetização e aos outros conhecimentos básicos como português, matemática e ciências. Enquanto as faculdades de educação de Cingapura oferecem 18 disciplinas de matemática, ciências e língua materna; no Brasil, as faculdades costumam oferecer apenas uma ou duas disciplinas de matemática, ciências e língua”, observou.
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Nova era do gelo
Cientistas russos dizem que nova era do gelo se iniciará em 2014
Contrariando grande parte da comunidade científica, os pesquisadores russos Vladimir Bashkin e Raouf Galiulin descartaram a influência humana sobre o aquecimento global, alegando que as alterações climáticas estão relacionadas com os ciclos de atividade solar.
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Contrariando grande parte da comunidade científica, os pesquisadores russos Vladimir Bashkin e Raouf Galiulin descartaram a influência humana sobre o aquecimento global, alegando que as alterações climáticas estão relacionadas com os ciclos de atividade solar.
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quinta-feira, 28 de novembro de 2013
Juventude cubana
¿Tú eres una excepción entre los jóvenes cubanos?, le pregunté, refiriéndome a su postura política.
“No, para nada. La juventud cubana completa, o casi completa, piensa igual que yo”, respondió Silvito. “La juventud cubana completa, o casi completa, es víctima del abuso de la policía, de la separación de sus familias por esto de Cuba y (el exilio de) Florida, y sabe lo que es vivir en Cuba y salir para la calle sin desayunar, y montarte en una guagua (bus) para llegar a un trabajo donde alguien te maltrata, para cobrar prácticamente nada”.
Mais
Read more here: http://www.elnuevoherald.com/2013/11/27/1624952/oppenheimer-la-tristeza-de-la.html#storylink=cpy
“No, para nada. La juventud cubana completa, o casi completa, piensa igual que yo”, respondió Silvito. “La juventud cubana completa, o casi completa, es víctima del abuso de la policía, de la separación de sus familias por esto de Cuba y (el exilio de) Florida, y sabe lo que es vivir en Cuba y salir para la calle sin desayunar, y montarte en una guagua (bus) para llegar a un trabajo donde alguien te maltrata, para cobrar prácticamente nada”.
Mais
Read more here: http://www.elnuevoherald.com/2013/11/27/1624952/oppenheimer-la-tristeza-de-la.html#storylink=cpy
Mistérios da história
O derretimento da Antártida está revelando pirâmides
Três pirâmides antigas foram descobertas na Antártida, por uma equipe de cientistas americanos e europeus. Duas foram descobertas cerca de 16 milhas para o interior, enquanto a terceira muito perto da costa.
Os primeiros relatórios sobre as pirâmides apareceram na mídia ocidental no ano passado. Algumas fotos foram publicadas em alguns sites com um comentário de que as estruturas estranhas poderiam servir como prova de que o continente coberto de gelo costumava ser quente o suficiente para ter sido habitado por uma civilização.
Imagem aérea tomada através do gelo do Pólo Sul parece mostrar dois ou, possivelmente, três pirâmides em uma linha, em uma formação semelhante às pirâmides de Giza.
Até agora, pouco se sabe sobre as pirâmides e a equipe prefere manter silêncio sobre a descoberta. A única informação confiável, fornecida pelos cientistas, era de que eles estavam planejando uma expedição para as pirâmides e continuar a investigar e determinar, com certeza, se as estruturas eram artificiais ou naturais. Nenhum detalhe foi dado sobre o calendário da expedição.
Se os pesquisadores provarem que as pirâmides são estruturas feitas pelo homem, a descoberta poderá levar a uma revisão da história da humanidade ...
quarta-feira, 27 de novembro de 2013
Somos cada vez mais inteligentes
In 1900, only 3% of Americans practiced professions that were deemed "cognitively demanding." Today, 35% of us do, and we have all learned to be flexible in the way that we think about problems. In this fascinating and fast-paced spin through the cognitive history of the 20th century, moral philosopher James Flynn makes the case that changes in the way we think have had surprising (and not always positive) consequences.
TEDTalks is a daily video podcast of the best talks and performances from the TED Conference, where the world's leading thinkers and doers give the talk of their lives in 18 minutes (or less). Look for talks on Technology, Entertainment and Design -- plus science, business, global issues, the arts and much more.
Find closed captions and translated subtitles in many languages at http://www.ted.com/translate
Assista
TEDTalks is a daily video podcast of the best talks and performances from the TED Conference, where the world's leading thinkers and doers give the talk of their lives in 18 minutes (or less). Look for talks on Technology, Entertainment and Design -- plus science, business, global issues, the arts and much more.
Find closed captions and translated subtitles in many languages at http://www.ted.com/translate
Assista
Nanotecnologia
The Reluctant Visionary
Nanotechnology-driven manufacturing will change our world in fundamental ways—but we shouldn’t get too worked up about it.
NOVEMBER 27, 2013 by PHIL BOWERMASTER
In 1959, Richard Feynman delivered a lecture with the provocative title “There’s Plenty of Room at the Bottom." Speaking at a meeting of the American Physical Society at Caltech, the Nobel-laureate-to-be speculated about the possibility of manipulating matter at the atomic level via exquisitely small machines. Would it be possible, Feynman asked, for such machinery to configure atoms themselves, producing atomically precise outputs? Might we one day have billions of submicroscopic factories working in parallel to produce anything and everything we need?
It was a profound and exciting idea, and yet one that received very little serious attention in the years that followed, until an MIT student named K. Eric Drexler took up the cause in the 1980s. Working within Marvin Minsky’s MIT Media Lab, Drexler earned a Ph.D. in molecular nanotechnology—the first such degree ever awarded anywhere. Along the way he wrote the bestselling Engines of Creation (1986), which outlined his vision of nanotechnology for non-technical audiences, and the technical treatise Nanosystems (1991), which got into the nuts and bolts of nanotech.
Engines of Creation kicked off a worldwide nanotechnology craze
Read more: http://www.fee.org/the_freeman/detail/the-reluctant-visionary#ixzz2lsaUlgGn
Fronteira do pensamento
O que acontece quando não nos reconhecemos mais dentro de nossas fronteiras? Que reação pode surgir quando as identidades se diluem e a estruturas que nos definem se decompõem? A questão da identidade, aqui tão debatida por nomes como Alain de Botton (http://youtu.be/BoxH807X3xU), Zygmunt Bauman (http://youtu.be/sMaWuh6nw3g), Jean-Pierre Lebrun (http://is.gd/b92NsS), dentre outros, é agora abordada pelo filósofo e linguista Tzvetan Todorov: Reação à globalização (acione as legendas no menu inferior do player – símbolo "CC").
- Leia também: "É suficiente dizer 'liberdade' pra que estejamos todos de acordo? Não sabemos nós que os tiranos do passado também se diziam partidários da liberdade?" - Tzvetan Todorov e as três ondas do messianismo político http://is.gd/eFwuPW
- Siga o Fronteiras no youtube para acompanhar as atualizações em primeira mão: www.youtube.com/fronteiraspoa
- Leia também: "É suficiente dizer 'liberdade' pra que estejamos todos de acordo? Não sabemos nós que os tiranos do passado também se diziam partidários da liberdade?" - Tzvetan Todorov e as três ondas do messianismo político http://is.gd/eFwuPW
- Siga o Fronteiras no youtube para acompanhar as atualizações em primeira mão: www.youtube.com/fronteiraspoa
Melhorar o mundo
"O ser humano não nasceu para corrigir o mundo. A esfera de ação própria do ser humano é muito pequena. E hoje em dia todo mundo tem a ambição de criar um mundo melhor. Qualquer garoto de 12 anos está criando um mundo melhor." - Olavo de Carvalho
Conselho
"Antes de diagnosticar a si mesmo com depressão ou baixa auto-estima, primeiro tenha certeza de que você não está, de fato, cercado por idiotas." - Sigmund Freud.
Falta de criminosos
Suécia fecha quatro presídios por falta de detentos
Taxa de ocupação do sistema carcerário do país vem caindo desde 2004
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Votação sobre correção da poupança
Presidente do STF mantém votação sobre correção da poupança, apesar de apelos
TONI SCIARRETTA
DE SÃO PAULO
SEVERINO MOTTA
DE BRASÍLIA
DE SÃO PAULO
SEVERINO MOTTA
DE BRASÍLIA
Atualizado às 09h21.
O presidente do STF (Supremo Tribunal Federal), Joaquim Barbosa, ignorou os apelos do governo e de uma carta de "notáveis" e manteve em pauta a votação da correção das poupanças nos planos econômicos dos anos 1980 e 1990, assunto que se arrasta desde 2010 e que pode trazer perdas bilionárias ao governo e ao sistema financeiro. O governo, que perde com as indenizações dos bancos públicos e com queda na arrecadação, negociava ontem à noite com membros do STF para suspender a votação.
No arsenal, está a manifestação de 23 notáveis -ex-presidente do BC, ex-ministros da Fazenda e até o ex-presidente Fernando Henrique Cardoso- dizendo que uma decisão favorável aos poupadores seria erro histórico.
Os poupadores, representados pelo Idec, desqualificam a carta afirmando que todos os signatários ou trabalham ou trabalharam sob a forma de consultor ou de conselheiro dos bancos.
A expectativa ontem era que algum dos ministros mais sensibilizados às ponderações do governo e do BC, que falam em perdas potenciais de R$ 150 bilhões (o Idec estima R$ 18 bilhões de provisões e R$ 8 bilhões de indenizações), peça vistas da votação.
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Desenvolvimentistas no poder
Os desenvolvimentistas no poder
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Por Pedro Ferreira e Renato Fragelli
Exclusivo para assinantesPara ler a matéria completa faça seu login ou cadastre-se
Em nenhum momento do passado recente houve tanta unanimidade ideológica entre os formuladores da política econômica como no atual governo. A própria presidente, os ministros da Fazenda e do Desenvolvimento, o presidente do BNDES, o secretário do Tesouro, o ministro da Educação e seus principais assessores, são todos desenvolvimentistas assumidos, com passagem pelas principais escolas desta corrente. Somente no Banco Central se encontram economistas mais ortodoxos, mas estes têm tido pouca influência sobre o resto do governo.
© 2000 – 2013. Todos os direitos reservados ao Valor Econômico S.A. . Verifique nossos Termos de Uso em http://www.valor.com.br/termos-de-uso. Este material não pode ser publicado, reescrito, redistribuído ou transmitido por broadcast sem autorização do Valor Econômico.
Leia mais em:
http://www.valor.com.br/opiniao/3344460/os-desenvolvimentistas-no-poder#ixzz2lrE4rfVu
Leia mais em:
Capitalismo de estado tipo Brasil
Reinventing State Capitalism
Leviathan in Business, Brazil and Beyond
The wave of liberalization that swept world markets in the 1980s and 90s altered the ways that governments manage their economies. Reinventing State Capitalism analyzes the rise of new species of state capitalism in which governments interact with private investors either as majority or minority shareholders in publicly-traded corporations or as financial backers of purely private firms (the so-called “national champions”). Focusing on a detailed quantitative assessment of Brazil’s economic performance from 1976 to 2009, Aldo Musacchio and Sergio Lazzarini examine how these models of state capitalism influence corporate investment and performance.
According to one model, the state acts as a majority investor, granting the state-owned enterprise (SOE) financial autonomy and allowing professional management. This form, the authors argue, has reduced many agency problems commonly faced by state ownership. According to another hybrid model, the state uses sovereign wealth funds, holding companies, and development banks to acquire a small share of equity ownership in a corporation, thereby potentially alleviating capital constraints and leveraging latent capabilities.
Both models have benefits and costs. Yet neither model has entirely eliminated the temptation of governments to intervene in the operation of natural resource industries and other large strategic enterprises. Nevertheless, the longstanding debate over whether private ownership is superior or inferior to state capitalism has become irrelevant, Musacchio and Lazzarini conclude. Private ownership is now mingled with state capital on a global scale.
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According to one model, the state acts as a majority investor, granting the state-owned enterprise (SOE) financial autonomy and allowing professional management. This form, the authors argue, has reduced many agency problems commonly faced by state ownership. According to another hybrid model, the state uses sovereign wealth funds, holding companies, and development banks to acquire a small share of equity ownership in a corporation, thereby potentially alleviating capital constraints and leveraging latent capabilities.
Both models have benefits and costs. Yet neither model has entirely eliminated the temptation of governments to intervene in the operation of natural resource industries and other large strategic enterprises. Nevertheless, the longstanding debate over whether private ownership is superior or inferior to state capitalism has become irrelevant, Musacchio and Lazzarini conclude. Private ownership is now mingled with state capital on a global scale.
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Teoria da instituições
Volume 26, Issue 4, December 2013
- OriginalPaper
terça-feira, 26 de novembro de 2013
Peter Turchin
This review is from: War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires (Paperback)
Peter Turchin is a highly respected evolutionary biologist who has
specialized in the synthesis of theory and empirical data (see his book
Complex Population Dynamics for his work in that area). He has now
turned the skills he honed explaining animal societies to human
societies, and particularly to explaining the rise and fall of empires.
In broad terms I would describe his approach as Malthus meets Marx meets
social constructionism meets evolutionary game theory. While his model
is strictly applicable only to agrarian empires, his explanations of
phenomena such rising income equality, intra-elite conflict, and even
increased demand for university admissions, resonate so strongly with
modern society that it is clear that a modified version of his model
will go a long way towards explaining our current political and economic
circumstances. There are few aspects of his work that are individually
wholly new; Turchin's contribution is a rigorous synthesis of historical
case-studies with evolutionary theory and quantitative empirical
evidence. His work has the potential to transform our understanding of
"macro" social issues in the same way that behavioral economics has
transformed our understanding of decision making at the "micro" level.
I'll go out on a limb and predict that Turchin will eventually win a
Nobel prize in economics.I'll provide a quick overview of Turchin's work, but this synopsis doesn't do it justice; if you find my overview implausible, please read his books for yourself.
How groups manage to escape the prisoners' dilemma and cooperate is a central question of evolutionary biology. Turchin argues that the social construction of "other" along meta-ethnic frontiers (which are often defined in terms of factors other than ethnicity, in particular religion), is necessary to enable group cooperation which allows empire building. This is why empires almost invariably arise along frontiers. A ruling class with a high potential for collective action ("asabiya" - a term Turchin borrows from the 14th century political philosopher Ibn Khaldun), will expand while financing its wars by taxing the peasants. In the early days of the empire, the elite are relatively austere warriors, and low population densities allow peasants to produce a significant surplus, so elite requirements do not overburden peasant production. As population densities increase, the surplus produced per peasant decreases because each has less land, but at the same time rents charged by the elites increase as land becomes scare. Peasants become poorer, though the elite continue to do well. Wealth inequality increases, and eventually the peasant base cannot sustain the high expectations of the growing elite population. Consequently, some of the elite class find themselves without land to sustain their lifestyle, while others become extremely wealthy due to control of scarce resources. This gives rise to intra-elite conflict. Social cohesion declines due to increasing inequality, both between elite and peasant classes and within the elite. The result is that peasants who are desperate and weakened by poverty are drawn into elite infighting. A combination of civil war, famine and plague reduces the population of the weakened state. The population decline ultimately leads to lower food prices and increased wages for the poor, but the loss of social cohesion is not so easily reversed. The recovery is thus impeded by continued infighting, and sometimes an outside group with higher asabiya takes over before another expansion phrase is triggered.
Turchin has three books developing his approach. "War and Peace and War: The Life Cycles of Imperial Nations" is the popular introduction. It describes the approach without any math or equations, and applies it to a range of historical empires. This is the place to start for a general introduction, particularly if you are not mathematically inclined. However, it is not formally rigorous and will not convince you if you are sceptical. "Secular Cycles" (with Sergey Nefedov) supports the theory with quantitative empirical data. It applies the model to two cycles in each of England, France, Rome and Russia. This is the book to read if you are comfortable with numbers and need to be convinced by empirical evidence. "Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall" provides the theoretical framework, discussing, for example, why an explanation of cyclical dynamics requires a feedback loop. It is quite mathematical, and while you don't have to work your way through all the equations, you should be comfortable with mathematical models generally. Turchin's model was inspired by Jack A Goldstone, "Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World." This is also an excellent book. It is written in a more traditional historical style; the model is informal, rather than formal, and the argument is supported by historical analysis of particular revolutions, rather than by quantitative data. In these respects it is similar to "War and Peace and War," though it is substantially longer. If you are looking for an extended analysis in a more traditional style of social history, this a great book.
This review pertains to all three of Turchin's books, and I am posting the same review for all of them.
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Julian Simon
"The material conditions of life will continue to get better for most people, in most countries, most of the time, indefinitely. Within a century or 2, all nations & most of humanity will be at or above today's Western living standards.
I also speculate, however, that many people will continue to think & say that the conditions of life are getting worse.”
~Julian Simon~ (Author of The Ultimate Resource)
In Simon's view, the key factor in natural and world economic growth is our capacity for the creation of new ideas and contributions to knowledge. The more people alive who can be trained to help solve the problems that confront us, the faster we can remove obstacles, and the greater the economic inheritance we shall bequeath to our descendants. In conjunction with the size of the educated population, the key constraint on human progress is the nature of the economic-political system: talented people need economic freedom and security to bring their talents to fruition.
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I also speculate, however, that many people will continue to think & say that the conditions of life are getting worse.”
~Julian Simon~ (Author of The Ultimate Resource)
In Simon's view, the key factor in natural and world economic growth is our capacity for the creation of new ideas and contributions to knowledge. The more people alive who can be trained to help solve the problems that confront us, the faster we can remove obstacles, and the greater the economic inheritance we shall bequeath to our descendants. In conjunction with the size of the educated population, the key constraint on human progress is the nature of the economic-political system: talented people need economic freedom and security to bring their talents to fruition.
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Elite overproduction - superprodução de elite
"Elite overproduction generally leads to more intra-elite competition that gradually undermines the spirit of cooperation, which is followed by ideological polarization and fragmentation of the political class. This happens because the more contenders there are, the more of them end up on the losing side."
Peter Turchin: War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires
Peter Turchin: War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires
Como demais advogados e juizes destroiem a sociedade
Peter Turchin is the vice president of the Evolution Institute and
professor of biology and anthropology at the University of Connecticut.
He has written the book War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires
and developed 30 indicators for tracing the destabilization of
societies—the Roman Empire, Imperial China, medieval and early-modern
England and France, and so forth. His indicators now signal the demise
of American society. Wage stagnation and income inequality have his
warning sensors blinking bright red. Another, less familiar symptom of
societal collapse, he writes for Bloomberg View, “is the overproduction of law degrees”:
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13 Things Mentally Strong People Don’t Do
November 13 by Amy Morin in Communication, Motivation | 185K Shares
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Mentally strong people have healthy habits. They manage their emotions, thoughts, and behaviors in ways that set them up for success in life. Check out these things that mentally strong people don’t do so that you too can become more mentally strong.
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1. They Don’t Waste Time Feeling Sorry for Themselves
Mentally strong people don’t sit around feeling sorry about their circumstances or how others have treated them. Instead, they take responsibility for their role in life and understand that life isn’t always easy or fair.2. They Don’t Give Away Their Power
They don’t allow others to control them, and they don’t give someone else power over them. They don’t say things like, “My boss makes me feel bad,” because they understand that they are in control over their own emotions and they have a choice in how they respond.3. They Don’t Shy Away from Change
Mentally strong people don’t try to avoid change. Instead, they welcome positive change and are willing to be flexible. They understand that change is inevitable and believe in their abilities to adapt.4. They Don’t Waste Energy on Things They Can’t Control
You won’t hear a mentally strong person complaining over lost luggage or traffic jams. Instead, they focus on what they can control in their lives. They recognize that sometimes, the only thing they can control is their attitude.5. They Don’t Worry About Pleasing Everyone
Mentally strong people recognize that they don’t need to please everyone all the time. They’re not afraid to say no or speak up when necessary. They strive to be kind and fair, but can handle other people being upset if they didn’t make them happy.6. They Don’t Fear Taking Calculated Risks
They don’t take reckless or foolish risks, but don’t mind taking calculated risks. Mentally strong people spend time weighing the risks and benefits before making a big decision, and they’re fully informed of the potential downsides before they take action.7. They Don’t Dwell on the Past
Mentally strong people don’t waste time dwelling on the past and wishing things could be different. They acknowledge their past and can say what they’ve learned from it. However, they don’t constantly relive bad experiences or fantasize about the glory days. Instead, they live for the present and plan for the future.8. They Don’t Make the Same Mistakes Over and Over
Mentally strong people accept responsibility for their behavior and learn from their past mistakes. As a result, they don’t keep repeating those mistakes over and over. Instead, they move on and make better decisions in the future.9. They Don’t Resent Other People’s Success
Mentally strong people can appreciate and celebrate other people’s success in life. They don’t grow jealous or feel cheated when others surpass them. Instead, they recognize that success comes with hard work, and they are willing to work hard for their own chance at success.10. They Don’t Give Up After the First Failure
Mentally strong people don’t view failure as a reason to give up. Instead, they use failure as an opportunity to grow and improve. They are willing to keep trying until they get it right.11. They Don’t Fear Alone Time
Mentally strong people can tolerate being alone and they don’t fear silence. They aren’t afraid to be alone with their thoughts and they can use downtime to be productive. They enjoy their own company and aren’t dependent on others for companionship and entertainment all the time but instead can be happy alone.12. They Don’t Feel the World Owes Them Anything
Mentally strong people don’t feel entitled to things in life. They weren’t born with a mentality that others would take care of them or that the world must give them something. Instead, they look for opportunities based on their own merits.13. They Don’t Expect Immediate Results
Whether they are working on improving their health or getting a new business off the ground, mentally strong people don’t expect immediate results. Instead, they apply their skills and time to the best of their ability and understand that real change takes time.Mais
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