Aprenda estatística na forma inteligente

Anthony J. Evans' Analytics

---

Pre requisite:

• Fund. Maths / numeracy skills bootcamp

Pre-reading:

• Thomas H. Davenport, “Competing on Analytics”, Harvard Business Review, Jan 1st 2006
• “The Use and Misuse of Statistics”, Harvard Management Update, No. U0603C

Reports: “Analytics bundle”, Anthony J. Evans [WIP]
Briefs: House of Commons library
Textbook: Curwin, J, and Slater, R., 2007, Quantitative Methods for Business Decisions, Cengage Learning, 6th Edition
In addition:

• Mlodinow, L., 2008, The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives, Pantheon
• Taleb, N.N., 2001, Fooled by Randomness, Random House
• Bodanis, D., 2001 E=MC^2 Pan Books
• Sing, S., 1997, Fermat’s Last Theorem
• Bernstein, P., 1998 Against the Gods Wiley
• Wheelan, C., 2013, Naked Statistics Norton

Intent: Integrate policy research into course material to demonstrate the practical relevance of the concepts taught.

---

1. Mind & mathematics

• Wow!
• Theory vs. fact (exercise)
• Statistical manipulation (lecture)
  • Y axis
  • 2nd Y axis
  • X axis
  • Spot the error
  • Factcheck
  • Breast cancer
  • Mental patients
• “How expensive is oil?” [see dy/dan]

Reading: “Think like a statistician – without the math“, Flowing data, March 4th 2010
“The myth of “i’m bad at math” The Atlantic
Video: Fermat’s Last Theorem

2. Descriptive statistics

• “Krupnik Estate Agents: Measures of location and dispersion” (lecture)
• Back of the envelope calculation (exercise)

Variance: The small schools myth, Alex Tabarrok
How to Read Histograms and Use Them in R
Annualising data

3. Probability theory

• Freemark Abbey Winery (case)
• Problem set on probability theory, permutations & combinations due in class
• Bayes theorem (brief lecture to debrief PS1)
• Probability distributions (lecture)

Reading: “How to understand risk in 13 clicks,” BBC News, March 11th 2009
Conditional probability

4. Game theory

• (Lecture)

5. Inferential statistics

“Taxi for Professor Evans” available here

• Confidence intervals
• Significance tests
• Non-parametric

Reading: “Measure for Measure: The strange science of Francis Galton“, by Jim Holt, The New Yorker, Jan 24th 2005

6. Regression

“The suitcase case” available here

• Correlation
• Linear regression

Reading: “Regression Step by Step Using Microsoft Excel” (.pdf)

7. Time series

• (Lecture)
• Collecting and Presenting Data (see here)

Exponents: here

8. Workshop I

• Fermat’s Folly (case)
• Freakonomics replication (video)
• Sir Roy Meadow discussion (see Mlodinow, 2008, p118, see here)
• Games:
  • Eleusis
  • Tic-Tac-Toe
  • 2048

9. Group presentations

• (Presentations)

10. Workshop II

• Problem set on material thus far (based on previous years examination) due in class
• Review session

---

Mais